Tag Archives: economy

America Will Lose The Trade War Because That Is What Globalists Want To Happen

Times of great political and social crisis can almost always be linked back to a common root cause – false paradigms. There are many people out there who have no clue what this phrase means, just as they have no clue what the phrase “controlled opposition” means. Some of these people are new activists to the liberty movement who recently joined because of the fervor of the Trump presidential campaign. They think the world of sovereignty and nationalism revolves around Trump, because frankly, they have been duped by a false paradigm themselves.

False paradigms are a base tactic of what is known as “4th Generation Warfare”. The purpose of 4th Gen warfare is described in the document ‘From Psyop To Mindwar‘. A document circulated within the DoD by the 7th Psychological Operations Group and written by now former General Paul Vallely (spelled “Valley” in the document) and now former Lt. Colonel Michael Aquino (a self professed satanist, believe it or not). I recommend it as a means to understand how globalists tend to think, how they use division to conquer populations, and to come to terms with the fact that these people are not held in check by empathy, morality or reason.

As far as 4th Gen warfare is concerned, Mindwar describes a method of psychological manipulation and propaganda used by governments and militaries as a means to turn a target population against itself. The goal is to win a war against a group of people by causing them to destroy each other so that the government does not have to combat them directly.

False paradigms are a premier tool for pursuing this outcome. They are achieved by dividing a population through false leadership, fake and sometimes real outside threats, as well as manufactured crisis events. Globalist institutions and the political puppets they control use false paradigms as a means to distract the public away from their criminal endeavors. While we are focused on the political Left, or the political Right, or the Russians, or the Iranians, or the Chinese, they are exploiting our fear and doubt to gain more centralization and more power.

For globalists, the great prize is, of course, OPEN global economic management (rather than covert management), a one world currency and cashless society, as well global government. They want a veritable worldwide feudal plantation state – and they want the masses to embrace it willingly, or perhaps even beg for it. To obtain this prize, they will need a considerable economic disaster. The US economy and the dollar would have to be undermined, for Americans would not consent to global governance as long as our society remains relatively affluent and comfortable.

But how is this being accomplished by the elites…? And, what does the trade war have to do with their plans?

Global Banking Elites And The Controlled Demolition Of The US

I have been writing extensively on the controlled demolition of the US economy for some time now. In January of 2018 I predicted in my article ‘Party While You Can – Central Bank Ready To Pop The Everything Bubble’ that Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve would pursue policy tightening and would continue until the bubble in fundamentals, corporate debt, consumer debt, housing, retail, stock markets, etc. collapsed. So far I have been proven correct; the fundamentals are plunging, and only stock markets remain. In the 2nd quarter of 2019 the Fed is still cutting assets exponentially from its balance sheet and still refuses to pull interest rates back from their neutral rate of inflation, despite the predictions of many in the mainstream and alternative media.

The Fed has used the tactic of addictive stimulus measures and artificially low interest rates to create massive financial bubbles in the past. And, they almost always use tightening policies in times of economic weakness to deliberately pop those bubbles. For example, this is exactly what happened at the onset of the Great Depression. As former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke openly admitted in 2002 in an address in honor of Milton Friedman:

“In short, according to Friedman and Schwartz, because of institutional changes and misguided doctrines, the banking panics of the Great Contraction were much more severe and widespread than would have normally occurred during a downturn.

Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal Reserve. I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You’re right, we did it. We’re very sorry. But thanks to you, we won’t do it again.”

And yet, it IS happening again today. As the economy nosedives, banking institutions buy up more hard assets and consolidate more power, and each time global economic management is suggested as a possible solution to the very crisis they created.

My question has never been “Will there be a crash?” A crash of the US is mathematically inevitable, it is happening now in accelerated fashion, and has been progressing in various ways since 2008. Instead my question has always been “How do the globalists plan to get away with it?”

In my article ‘Trump Trade Wars A Perfect Smokescreen For A Market Crash, published in March 2018, I outlined exactly how they plan to get away with it. In that article I examined the strange number of similarities in policy and politics between Donald Trump and Herbert Hoover, including the use of large scale tariffs right before the collapse of the US financial system. While it was the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases into weakness that exacerbated and prolonged the Great Depression for many years, it was Herbert Hoover’s policies (and sometimes the gold standard) that were blamed for the crash.

In other words, Donald Trump is following almost the exact same path as Herbert Hoover, and Trump’s trade war with China is being used by the banking elites as cover for their sabotage of the US economy. In the end, it will be Trump and all of his “populist” followers that will get the blame for the destabilization of our financial structure. The central bankers have a perfect scapegoat.

Trump And The False Left/Right Paradigm

But how could the banking elites and globalists possibly predict Trump’s behavior in order to take advantage of it? Well, if you look at Trump’s background as well as the number of elites he has placed within his own cabinet, the reality if the situation becomes clear: Trump is a puppet, and always has been.

In my article ‘Trump Is A Pied Piper For The New World Order’ I outlined Trump’s history with the banking elites, including his relationship with Rothschild banking agent Wilber Ross, who bailed Trump out of his debts and saved him from the effects of bankruptcy in the 1990’s. Trump’s biggest campaign promise in 2016 was to “drain the swamp” in Washington D.C. of the financial elitists and globalists that Hillary Clinton was so closely tied to. But, when he entered the White House, he made Wilber Ross his Secretary of Commerce, hired on Goldman Sachs goons like Steven Mnuchin and Gary Cohn, and he has brought warmongering psychopathic think tank members like John Bolton and Mike Pompeo into his cabinet.

The globalists don’t have to predict Trump’s behavior, they dictate Trump’s behavior. Thus, the false left/right paradigm reigns supreme once again; the same paradigm many Trump followers thought they were escaping by rallying against a Clinton presidency.

Current Trump cheerleaders completely ignore this fact, however. I have not seen a single one of them confront the issue of Trump’s cabinet or his associations with the Rothschilds. They either ignore it outright, or they claim Trump is “keeping his enemies close” or “using their expertise to free America”. This is insanity, but it showcases the power that false paradigms have. Conservatives were so afraid of Clinton that they jumped on the bandwagon of Trump’s controlled opposition administration, and they refuse to admit they have been conned.

How have globalists benefited from Trump being in the White House, though?

Trump has gone on to attach his presidency so closely to the performance of the economy and primarily stock markets, that any crash now will undoubtedly be blamed on him. This is strange behavior if you consider his statements during his campaign, including his assertion that the Fed was deliberately keeping interest rates low to protect Obama, and that the stock market was a giant fraudulent bubble. Today, Trump is demanding that the Fed funds rate be lowered and that stimulus be renewed, and, he has been Tweeting incessantly about how the economy under his watch is the “greatest ever”.

To those who actually track the health of the US economy, Trump’s statements might seem delusional. If you understand that Trump is controlled opposition and that he is playing the scripted role of a bumbling villain, his statements make perfect sense. The US economy is NOT the greatest it has ever been, in fact, it is the worst it has been since the crash of 2008, as I evidenced in detail in my article ‘The Crash In US Economic Fundamentals Is Accelerating’. Trump is wrapping himself around the implosion of the Everything Bubble as a mascot of fiscal destruction, and he’s trying to drag all conservatives with him.

China And The False East/West Paradigm

The other side of the control mechanism for a crash of this magnitude is on the other side of the world – China. It is not only Trump that has to act a certain way in order to cover for the crash of the Everything Bubble, China must also play its role. The false East/West paradigm is perhaps the most pervasive of all false paradigms, for even many in the liberty movement think that governments in China or Russia are opposed to the elites in the US and Europe. This is simply not true.

China in particular has a long time relationship with Western globalists. In fact, modern China was essentially built by them.

The Rockefeller family and the Rockefeller Foundation have been influencing Chinese social and political developments since the late 1800’s. This started as seemingly innocuous, with the foundation initiating social and health related programs in rural areas, but as noted by historians with access to the Rockefeller Archives, the Rockefellers were not seeking to display their capacity for philanthropic charity, but pursuing wide reaching influence in Chinese society and politics. For more information, I highly recommend reading Frank Ninkovich’s study of the Rockefeller’s dominance in China for the past century in the Journal Of American History.

China’s central bank is currently linked to the Bank For international Settlements, which is often referred to as the “central bank of central banks” and as admitted in an article for Harpers in 1983, the BIS essentially writes policy for all member banks – this means the Chinese central bank AND the Federal Reserve are both controlled by the globalists at the BIS. This is even more evident in recent years as all major central banks have operated with an odd level of coordination to prop up the stock markets of other nations, including stock markets of nations that are supposedly in conflict.

China also now works closely with the IMF – the Yuan has been inducted into the SDR basket system, and China has called on multiple occasions for the SDR basket to replace the US dollar as the world reserve structure. The IMF is openly discussing the introduction of a cashless digital currency system based on blockchain technology, which I believe will be the likely replacement for ALL currencies when the time comes.

This means the trade war is a farce. When it comes to the elites of China and the US, there is no division and no conflict. They all want the same thing – global centralization.

The Trade War Smokescreen

For many years I have warned that the next World War would be an economic world war between the East and West, and that this war would be engineered by globalists as a mass distraction while they introduced their one world economic system. The crux of that economic war would be the eventual dumping of US treasuries by foreign central banks as well as the dollar as the world reserve currency.

What many pro-trade war people don’t seem to realize is that the dollar’s world reserve status was part of the original deal with China. China gained a trade surplus and access to US markets, the US gained a cheap labor pool, access to cheap goods and our currency was accepted by the Chinese as the foundation of international trade. But this dynamic no longer serves globalist interests in the new system they hope to create.

As described in an article published in the Rothschild run magazine The Economist in 1988, the US economy has to be brought down to pave the way for the new global currency system. Globalist Mohamed El-Erian confirmed this plan in a 2017 op-ed for The Guardian. And, as globalist George Soros stated in 2009, China is intended to take a larger role in the IMF and become the economic engine for the “new world order”, while the US is set to take a back seat in global affairs as the rest of the world moves away from the dollar.

This might be why US 10 year treasury auctions are seeing dismal results, and why the Chinese are now willing to threaten the dumping of US T-bonds through their state run media. China has NOT folded to US tariffs as so many people have been predicting for the past year. In fact, China has dug in even further.

China is the number one exporter/importer in the world. They now set the standard for international trade, not the US. If China follows through on threats to dump US treasuries, or if they dump the dollar as the world reserve, then most if not all of their trading partners will do the same. The consequences would be devastating for the US economy, which has a minimal manufacturing base and is utterly reliant on the international acceptance of the dollar to keep prices low and to prop up what’s left of our financial structure.

While proponents of the trade war keep insisting that manufacturing will come back to the US, this still has not materialized. Why would corporations spend all the money to rebuild factories in the US when they can simply stay in Asia and use the existing factories and cheap labor? There is no incentive for them to come back. If tariffs go higher, they can easily raise prices on consumers to support their bottom line.

The US is being set up for a spectacular fall. Those that claim China would never make such a move don’t understand the Chinese economy. The US market is only 18% of Chinese exports, and US consumption has been declining. The vast majority of China’s GDP comes from domestic consumption, and the claim that China is dependent on US markets to survive is one of the most widely perpetuated lies of the past decade. The Chinese will take a hit to their economy, certainly, but nowhere near the hit the US economy will take if they cut off the dollar as the primary trade mechanism.

The trade war only makes sense if you look at it from the globalist perspective. China will get hurt to an extent, the US will suffer an economic disaster it will never recover from, and only the globalists truly benefit. With tensions increasing, probably through the end of 2019, I suspect the Federal Reserve will increase cuts to their balance sheet under cover of the trade war. I also suspect that China’s central bank will finally cut off stimulus measures which have been keeping global stocks afloat for the past four months. This will eventually trigger the crash of markets on top of already plunging fundamentals.

The US will lose the trade war, Trump and conservatives will be blamed for the collapse, China will already be pre-positioned as the next economic engine for the world, and the IMF and BIS will introduce their one world currency system as the solution to the problem they created. Whether or not they succeed in this plan will greatly depend on whether or not enough people set aside their biases and accept that the whole thing was a farce from the very beginning.

http://www.alt-market.com/articles/3761-america-will-lose-the-trade-war-because-that-is-what-globalists-want-to-happen

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MSNBC Host Provides the Most Hilarious Explanation of the Economy in History

One of the major problems confronting the Democrats in 2020 is the state of the economy. Barring some deus ex machina, President Trump is going to campaign for reelection within the context of a significant economic boom. The stock market is booming. Inflation remains low. Real wages are up. Labor force participation is up. Unemployment is at near historic lows. Ordinarily, people would be happy for a great economy, but, with the Democrats, good news for America is bad news for their party.

Their most immediate problem is how to rationalize the economy under Trump to the economy overseen by Obama. At that point, the conventional wisdom among Democrats and professional economists was that high unemployment, low labor force participation, and stagnant wages were the new normal.

Now MSNBC “personality” Chris Hayes has his own theory to explain the difference:

Everyone who called for austerity got it wrong and caused harm

Everyone who scaremongered about the deficit got it wrong and caused harm

Everyone who wrote about the “skills gap” got it wrong and caused harm

Everyone who kept warning about inflation got it wrong and caused harm

Lots of regular people – critics, bloggers, gadflies, etc were able to see this but the commanding heights of the econ/policy/political worlds either could not or would not.

Or, an even less charitable interpretation: they didn’t get it wrong at all. They didn’t want full employment, they didn’t want wage growth and empowered workers and they certainly didn’t want that happening under a Democratic president.

I mean, years of the titans of industry whining about the skills mismatch, how they can’t find good workers, and chin-stroking conferences about labor force participation, and columns about how it was workers’ own fault, on and on and on, all just garbage.

Yep. That’s exactly what happened. Tens of thousands of American businesses decided they’d go out of business rather than let Obama’s economic plan be a success. Millions of Americans decided they’d just sit at home and not work to screw the black guy.

This is ridiculous.

Not to say that Obama didn’t inherit an economic mess, he did. But, like FDR’s New Deal, Obama tried to use a financial crisis to fundamentally change the US economy and to increase government influence. He reduced the workforce by nearly 9 million by liberalizing rules for disability insurance and did this as much to try to create a new class of benefit recipients who would reliably vote Democrat as for any other reason. But the reason that the economy has taken off under Trump is because both consumers and employers feel more secure in their finances and have more confidence to make major investments and purchases. Putting the brakes on federal rule-making and rolling back rules that inhibit growth have also been a factor. Getting out of the way as oil/gas exploration and extraction has boomed has been a major stimulus to the national economy.

More to the detail of Hayes nonsense. Obama was not burdened with any “austerity” measures

Neither has Trump benefited from an increase in inflation:

A lot of the “skills gap” was utter bullsh** pushed by the Chamber of Commerce in its eagerness to bring in more cheap H1B visa recipients to replace American workers. Under Obama, most American STEM graduates didn’t work in that field but no one in the White House ever challenged the narrative because Obama, too, wanted cheap foreign workers and Americans on the dole.

I have no doubt that this will become a full-fledged scandal, probably rating its own special counsel, by the time the election season is in full swing. There is probably a Michael Moore movie in the making about this conspiracy. But most people are going to see this for what it is, a dimwitted cable talking head trying to rationalize away a very good economy.

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Trump To Target Payments To Mexico From Illegals To Stop Migration

President Donald Trump has a new weapon in the war he is waging against illegal immigration and those who take advantage of it.

Many illegal immigrants work in the United States and use the cash they earn to pay family back in their home nations.

But now President Trump is planning to cut those payments off and deport the illegal immigrants who attempt to send them, The Epoch Times reported.

The White House is considering a plan to curb payments sent to Mexico and Central American countries in order to stem a surge of illegal aliens pouring into the United States.

A senior administration official told reporters on April 10 the plan would restrict remittances from the United States in order to discourage migrants.

The move is part of a broader plan targeting migrants who cross the border illegally to claim asylum. The vast majority of asylum claims are rejected, but loopholes in the immigration laws result in many of the migrants being released into the interior with work permits, as they await adjudication of their claims. Many never show up to be deported and continue working in the United States and sending money to relatives in their home countries.

According to the World Bank, $33.7 billion in remittances was sent to Mexico in 2018, an increase of 21 percent from 2016. The outflow to Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras grew to $19.7 billion in 2018, a 25 percent increase from 2016. A significant portion of the payments goes to human trafficking cartels that charge at least $5,000 per person to help the migrants travel and enter into the United States.

In an April 9 interview with Breitbart, Former Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach floated a plan to threaten to end remittances to Mexico entirely. The threat can be used to force Mexico to enact a ban on Central Americans traveling through the country to the United States. Mexico already has a robust asylum system and could demand that migrants seek asylum in the first country they arrive in.

“The threat I propose is one that actually helps us if we follow through on it. That is the threat of ending remittances from the majority of people in the United States from Mexico who are here illegally,” he said.

“That is a threat that we could carry through on that actually helps our economy because the money is not sent home, it stays in circulation in the U.S. economy and helps rev up our economy. It’s actually a good thing if we follow through,” Kobach said.

“They don’t want to risk losing that massive flow of foreign capital. In most years, it’s their second biggest source of foreign capital,” he said.

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This Diagram Will Change The Way You See The USA’s Economy

A single graphic gives great perspective on just how massive the United States economy is relative to other nations.

Released by howmuch.net, and called a Voronoi Diagram, it represents each country’s share of the world economy as a slice in a global circle. America’s share takes up the largest amount by far at 23.32 percent, followed far behind by China at 13.9 percent.

Japan is third at a distant 6.18 percent, followed by Germany, France and the U.K.

The United States only has about 5 percent of the world population, yet it dominates the global economy. China, with almost three times the population, still has a long way to go.

The diagram from the “cost-information website” also divides the country’s share into sectors, service, industry and agriculture – and this is where it gets less than stellar.

The vast majority of America’s economy is service-based, with the industrial and agricultural sector a much smaller share.

Compare that with China’s share of the “pie,” where services and industry are roughly the same. From the site:

The US economy is mostly composed of companies engaged in providing services (79.7% compared to the global average of 63.6%), while agriculture and industry make up smaller-than-average of portions of the economy (1.12% and 19.1% compared to averages of 5.9% and 30.5%).

The next largest economy, China, is roughly balanced between industry and services (though the service sector is growing at a faster rate), with a 9.1% contribution from agriculture. In this sense, China is a bit of an anomaly: other rich countries have service sectors that greatly outweigh both industry and agriculture. Over the past several decades, China has leveraged its competitive advantage and designed industrial policies to incent manufacturing in the country. But as China grows, it will continue to transition to a service-based economy. Similarly, India will see a decrease in agriculture’s contribution to its GDP and an increase in the size of the service sector.

Over time, the service sectors of developed nations have tended to grow relative to the other sectors. But are there limits to this trend? What is the natural size of each sector?

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Hyperinflation Experts Have It All Wrong

China will have a more significant impact on the global economy by 2025 than the United States. As Wealth Research Group published a number of times in recent months, the Asians are a mere seven years away from boasting the largest economy, based on GDP, to ever exist.

A decade after that, China will be the most intimidating militaristic power ever, having a mightier army than the U.S. ever had.

These are no small changes – they represent the equivalent to a tectonic shift at the earth’s crust, which produced our deepest oceans and highest mountains.

Millions of years ago, a giant island the size of Australia, roughly, located near today’s Madagascar, started moving north, toward today’s Russia and China, at a moderate pace of a few centimeters a year, so no one grew suspicious of these baby steps taken by the enormous island.

No one was prepared, but the colossal island, now called India, collided with Asia, forming the Himalayas.

You see, small, incremental changes go undetected until it is too late. My father ate like a king for 53 years, until his arteries couldn’t take it any longer, and he suffered a heart attack.

The snowball effect in action – it works for us or against us, as we use it. When you reinvest your dividends to buy additional shares in a well-managed business for 20 years, you end up with a wealth fortress, but if you ignore the rules of compounding and watch others, less talented and less sophisticated, making a killing, you’ll stay stuck in a rut.

There are clear rules to generating wealth, and this idea was reinforced while driving the McLaren 570S on the circuit this past Sunday, as any imprecision in braking, turning, or accelerating costs valuable seconds throughout the course of an entire lap and to professionals, it could mean the difference between world fame or mediocrity.

China, like the Indian sub-continent millions of years ago, is headed toward collision, which will impact price levels around the world, but the analysts are focused solely on USD inflation.

This is a huge mistake, since the Chinese will be much more influential, going forward, on how much commodities cost and how inflationary the next decade will be. But most are either completely ignoring the real cause for the coming inflationary crisis or are utterly ignorant of it – I want you to understand it and have no delusions regarding it.

China implemented a one-child-policy, which was meant to curb their national population explosion. Back then, China was based on agriculture, mostly, so families had children to help in the rice fields, but as the transition to manufacturing increased, the need for child labor became less meaningful.

Now, though, the one-child-policy is biting them in the ass.

Their elderly population is growing rapidly, while their demographics of 20 to 65-year-olds are shrinking.

More adults, fewer workers are exactly the formula, which was present in the U.S. between 2000 and 2011, and gold raged higher for 11 consecutive years.

Fewer workers equal less manufactured goods, so prices rise.

The inflationary pressures that the U.S. will experience in the coming years, due to giant deficits and de-dollarization, which will cause foreign creditors to send dollars back to the origin (the U.S. banking system) is nothing compared with China’s upcoming ones.

Gold is now held hostage to many misconceptions, such as, that a growing global economy and higher interest rates are bad for gold prices, but the Reagan years and the Bush years both proved that this is nonsense – both gold and mining shares can perform well in boom times.

China is the key to the gold breakout, just as it is the essential component for continued success for U.S. corporations selling products around the world – global commerce is a delicate ecosystem, and the more it becomes complex, the more commodities will go through even more volatile booms and busts.

For nearly 30 years, commodities have gone nowhere – this is a time when fortunes are made by sitting tight, monitoring, and being extra-selective.

Inflationary pressures from China are the next drum to beat in the precious metals symphony.

Best Regards,

Lior Gantz
President, WealthResearchGroup.com

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Breathtaking Chart On Record Margin Debt

Margin debt of $300 billion. Only three times the size of the Dotcom bubble and the housing bubble. What could possibly go wrong? It’s all good. No worries. The machines have it all under control. Their algorithms, created by Harvard educated MBA geniuses, won’t all say sell at the same time. Right?

Image result for what me worry mad magazine

www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/debt-and-not-much-deleveraging (2015)
www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Global%20Themes/Employment%20and%20Growth/Debt%20and%20not%20much%20deleveraging/MGI%20Debt%20and%20not%20much%20deleveragingFullreportFebruary2015.ashx (PDF 2015 Report)

PNG_Web_MGI_Debt_ex_1.ashx

Table C. Annual Change in the U.S. Net International Investment Position, foreign ownership of US Assets, Stocks, Bonds, Direct Foreign Investment, US Agency Bonds, US Treasuries = $35.5 Trillion in 2017. $19 Trillion is Long Term Debt & Stocks and Bonds.
www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/intinv/intinvnewsrelease.htm
Life, Liberty, Equality, Pursuit of Happiness and Property… freedom from Transnational Corporations shipping US Capital/US Profits Overeas with US Jobs/Livelihood… I mean you have your piece of the pie, right? Your grand kids are all set, right? Inflation is planned by the banks, central bank, corporations, federal government… but it hurts the losers in the Economy. Old, Infirm, Diseased, the very young, the very old, the pensioners, fixed income folks. Relocation costs $10s of thousands. Retraining can cost $10s of thousands. Maintenance of Home and Autos costs $100s of dollars an hour. 98 different kinds of Taxes and Government Fees. $ Trillions in Usury Fees going to banks every year. Foreign Wealth buys properties and lifts Real Estate Prices. We are told there are ‘No Borders’ and Corporations have no Patriotism and are Ex patriots.
-Who is mapping out the Wealth Flows and the Reforms we need?

That is how it happened in 2008, right?
-Sept is end of Federal Fiscal Year
-Apr is Omni-Bus or Federal Budget Patch Time, Continuing Resolution to fund the government …congress no longer does a full budget review process, Bankers around the world know that the US is not much better than free spending Latin America
www.thebalance.com/fy-2009-u-s-federal-budget-and-spending-3306311
House Passes Spending Bill, and Critics Are Quick to Point Out Pork, By ROBERT PEAR, FEB. 25, 2009, The 245-to-178 vote came just a week after President Obama signed one of the largest spending bills in the nation’s history, a $787 billion measure meant to rejuvenate a sluggish economy.

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China might NEVER become the biggest economy in the world

It is often assumed that given China’s remarkable growth rates over the past three decades
around 10% real GDP per year – China is on the way to soon becoming the largest economy
in the world. In fact earlier this year it got a lot of media attention that when the World Bank argued that China already had overtaken the US as the largest in economy in the world. However, the argument was completely bogus as it was based on Purchasing
Power Parity (PPP) rather than on actual exchange rates (To be fair we should blame the media rather than the World Bank for this interpretation of the data). PPP based measures of GDP (per capita) might make sense if we want to measure how much an average citizen can buy for given an average income, however, it does not make sense when we want to measure the size of the economy. There we have to use measures based on actual exchange rates and if we do that then it turns out that the Chinese economy is still
significantly smaller than the US economy. Hence, total Chinese GDP today is around 10 trillion USD, while US GDP is around bn 17
– 18 trillion USD. Said in another way the US economy is still nearly double the size of the Chinese economy. And what I will argue in this post is that China might never overtake the US as the biggest economy in the world.
Chinese growth set to slow dramatically in the coming decades There is a broad consensus among long-term macroeconomic forecasters that the Chinese economy is likely to slow significantly in the coming quarters – starting today!
There are overall three reasons why this is the case:
1) The catching up process means less and less: A very large part of China fantastic growth performance over the past three decades is due to a “natural” catching up process. When poor economies
– like the Chinese economy three decades ago – is freed up a catching up process is started. This means a lot for low – income economies, but as income levels increase the catching up process slows down. This is already the case for China. 2) Investment growth
is likely to slow significantly: Fixed investments as share of
GDP in China is extremely high –well above 40% of GDP. This is at least 10 -15 % -point more than in other countries with a similar  GDP/capita level. This to some extent reflect capital misallocation in
the Chinese economy as investment decision in the Chinese

economy to a large extent still is a result of quasi – central
planning . It is therefore natural to expect investment growth to slow quite significantly in the coming decades. 3) China is facing
serious demographic challenges: You can blame the Communist
Party’s one – child policy or come up with other explanations but the fact is that the Chinese labour force is now already in decline and the decline will continue in the coming decades and soon the Chine
se population will be in outright decline. So from a growth –
accounting perspective we have it all–less Total Factor Productivity
growth – as the catch -up process slows, a slower increase in the capital stock and finally a declining labour force. It is therefore hardly surprising that most long-term forecasts made for the Chinese economy forecast a rather significant slowdown in Chinese growth in the coming decades Closing in on the US, but China might
never make it It is commonly argued that trend growth presently is around 7-7.5% in China, however, it is equally common to argue that we will see a slowdown in real GDP growth to an average of
around 5-6% in the coming 10-15 years. But the real slowdown comes after 2030 where the Chinese economy is expected by most long-term forecasters to start to approaching Japanese style growth rates and outright negative trend-growth should not be ruled out in
the 2050s based on reasonable expectations about demographics, the investment ratio and the catching -up process. Obviously it is difficult to make any macroeconomic forecasts. However, I would actually argue that it in many ways it is easier to make forecast 10
– 20 years ahead than 1-2 years ahead. When we do short-term  forecast the shocks will always mess up our forecasts, but
over a 10-20 years horizon the positive and negative shocks tend to even out. Furthermore, in the long-run it is all about supply side factors and with the growth rate of the labour force being a major fa
ctor we already know quite a bit. Hence, we have a pretty good idea about the growth of the Chinese labour force in 15-20 years as the people entering the labour force as young adults in 15 or 20 years already have been born. I have gone through a number o
f studies of the long-term growth perspectives for the
Chinese economy and based on that we can make a simple “simulation”of how the level of Chinese real GDP will develop from now and until 2060. I should stress it is not a forecast as
such and lets therefore just stick with the term “simulation” of future Chinese real GDP under reasonable assumptions about the development in technology and in productions factors.
The graph below illustrates my argument that China might never overtake the US as the larges t economy in the world. Here is my assumptions (and they can certainly debate , but hey are not much different from the “consensus” forecasts for long-term growth in Chinaand the US). I assume that trend real GDP growth in China over the next 15 years will be 6%– slowing from presently 7.5% to 4.5% in 2030. Hereafter the negative demographics in China really kick in and as a result trend growth drops to an average of just 2% for the period 2030-2060.

I have indexed Chinese real GDP at 55 in 2014 – reflecting that Chinese GDP (in USD) is around 55% of US GDP. In my simulation I have assumed that US trend real GDP growth is 3%. This is probably slightly optimistic compared to the “consensus” among long
-term forecasters, but it is basically the growth rate we rather consistently have seen in the US economy since the early 1960s. The American demographic challenges are somewhat smaller than is the case for China and I find it rather likely that the US gradually will adjust immigration policies so meet these challenges (I certainly hope so…)
It is important to stress that I here assume that the there is no real appreciation or depreciation in the USD/RMB exchange rate (no
Balassa-Samuelson effect). Hence, the exchange rate development is determined by relative inflation in the US and China. This might  twist the results slightly against China. On the other hand I have also assumed that the output gap is zero in both countries. In fact the output gap in the US is still negative, while the output gap in China likely is close to zero or even positive. This twists the results
against the US. Let’s just (completely unreasonably) say that these factors even out each other. So there you go. You see under these
–simplistic– assumptions the Chinese economy will  continue to gain on the US economy over the next two decades. However, under these assumptions (and I again stress it is assumptions) it will be close (around 90%), but no cigar for the Chinese economy
the Chinese economy will never be the largest economy in the
world–or at least not in my life time and I do plan to live to at least 2060. Furthermore, starting around 2040 China will stop catching up and instead see its economy decline relative to the US and in 2060 we will be more or less back where we started with Chinese GDP being around 60% of US GDP. Now you might say that these results are too negative in terms of China or too positive in terms of the US and that might very well be the case. However, I do think that my simulations illustrate that China is not automatically set for global economic and financial domination. So while China – for a period– might become a bigger economy than the US –if we for example assumption 2.5% US trend growth rather than 3%–
the negative demographics will start to kick in soon and that will ensure that the US economy will remain the biggest economy in the world–also in 50 years. This also means that it is quite hard to
imagine in my view that the “financial centre” of the world will move to China and I find it extremely hard to imagine that the Chinese renminbi will take over of the role as the leading reserve currency of the world from the US dollar.
But
there
is
no
reason
t
o
cry
for
the
Chinese
So China might never become the biggest economy in the world. However, that should
really
not
be important for the Chinese. It might be for Chinese policy makers, but the
average Chinese should instead celebrate the fact that outlook for his/her income level
remains very bright and income growth for the individual Chinese is likely to remain very
h
igh in the coming decades. So the discussion above should not really be seen as being
“bearish” on China. In fact I am rather optimistic about the Chinese “miracle” continuing in
the coming decades. We should celebrate that, but we might never be able to c
elebrate the
day the Chinese economy overtakes the US in absolute size.
B
y
Lars Christensen
The Market Mon
e
t
a
r
ist
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X22Report Economy Declined Further and Nobody Noticed, Get Prepared

A new record was set, there are now 95,385,000 people not in the labor force. Many Americans have looked for jobs but there are no jobs out there.

Retail and those companies that make products for retailers are feeling the declining economy.

Russia ramps up gold purchases in preparation for a failing global economy.

All source links to the report can be found on the x22report.com site.

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2017/11/x22report-economy-declined-further-and.html

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The Tipping Point for the Economy Is Here – One False Flag Away From Armageddon

In a recent phone conversation I had with Steve Quayle, he said “the people do not realize how close we are to a complete takeover and collapse of our system”.  Truer words were never spoken.

It is easy to interpret the signals of our economy from afar when we see people driving cars everywhere and we tend to think that our economy is not that bad.

The fact remains that 40 years ago Americans owned those cars that we see them driving. Today, we are renting them as 40% of us are leasing our vehicles.

As we drive up and down our neighborhoods, we see people living in houses and we lie to ourselves as use this as a  false barometer to convince ourselves that everything is OK. However, many of these homes we see people living in, have lost all of their equity.

The logical answer to the question “When will we have a depression?”, should be answered by stating “We have an $20 trillion dollar annual deficit and that is the good news. We have $240 trillion dollars of debt from unfunded liabilities and we have a stunning $1.5 quadrillion dollar debt with a $505 trillion dollar annual interest rate”. These debts can never be paid off by a government that only takes in $2 trillion dollars per year. 

So, you better grab all the food, water, guns and ammunition that you can and run for the hills, if you are able”!  But as long we see people driving in cars and living in houses, most Americans are going to deny the truth.

Yet, I feel compelled to speak the truth because I might be able to get one more person to take the steps necessary to help increase the odds of their survival in response to what is coming. History shows that one can count on six things occurring following the collapse of the dollar.

The Last Great American Garage Sale

On multiple occasions in this column, I have thoroughly documented the following facts which demonstrate that the banksters are stealing our assets in preparation for them to economically survive what is coming:

1. The Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that when you put money into the bank, you have transferred ownership of that money to the bank. This ruling represents government sponsored theft in the highest order, yet most of us are unaware that this happened.

2. The G20 nations declared the money in your bank account to not be money. Therefore, the FDIC insurance for your savings.

3. The MERS mortgage fraud is ongoing and homeowners are still having their homes stolen without legal justification.

4. The FederalReserve, in 2012, began to print money to the tune of $40 billion dollars a month in order to purchase mortgage backed securities. Then they converted this money into gold and are awaiting the collapse. When the smoke clears, they will be among the few that own large amounts of property and have one of the mediums of exchange that have taken the place of cash. Watch what man does, not what he says. The Federal Reserve is telling you that there is going to be an economic collapse and it will be on in which they are fully prepared for. 

5. The banksters have practiced stealing the secured accounts of American in the MF Global (MFG) scandal, resulting in the loss of $6.3 billion dollars of secured investment funds. Nobody went to jail. This was a beta test, one that

6. Starting in April of 2013,  the banksters are manipulating the price of gold as evidenced by the actions of “Goldman Sachs who told their clients earlier that they recommend initiating a short COMEX gold position.” After investors were duped into panic selling, the banksters bought up massive sums of gold. The banksters were buying gold while getting out the American Stock Market and the megabanks. Why? Because the dollar is on the verge of collapse. This manipulation is continuing today. Gold and silver are being kept artificially low. NOW, is the time to buy!

 

There Is Only One Thing Left to Do

The only thing left to do is for the banksters to steal your bank accounts. The correct “crisis” will bring about the collapse of the dollar now that the wealth transfer has largely been accomplished.

I am convinced as I look at history that the correct crisis will be a combination of false flag scenarios which I wrote about a few days ago.

 

Ominous Warning

I am presently writing a book and one of the sub-topics has to do with the role that FEMA camp type of institutions and what history teaches is ominous and perilous when we apply the lessons of history to our time. All the pieces are in place for a martial law purge in this country. We are only awaiting the catalyst event. There has never been a time when personal preparation (eg gold, guns, ammo, food, water, meds, the Bible and alliance) is necessary to one’s survival.

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